Fact Sheet: Results from the Canada Net-Zero Scenario

In the Canada Net-Zero (CNZ) Scenario, Canada achieves net-zero emissions by 2050, but the rest of the world moves more slowly to reduce GHG emissions.

a river flowing through mountains

Net-Zero by 2050

By 2050, electricity will make up 39% of total end-use energy use, up from 17% in 2021, while fossil fuel use will drop by 56% from 2021 to 2050.

  • Electricity demand will grow 135% from 2021 to 2050, with the annual rate of demand growth almost triple that from 1995 to 2019.
  • Overall end-use energy demand declines by 12% from 2021 to 2050.
  • By 2050, generation from Small Module Reactors make up 12% of total electricity generation 2050.
  • Wind generation will make up over a quarter of all electricity produced in Canada by 2050.
  • Oil production will fall to 3.9 million barrels per day (MMb/d) by 2050, 22% lower than in 2022, and natural gas production will be 37% lower than in 2022, falling to 11 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).
  • LNG exports reach 3.8 Bcf/d by 2030 and remain there to 2050. While the economics of Canadian LNG were examined, these are assumptions, not results from the modelling.
  • Oil sands production will fall from a peak of nearly 3.64 MMb/d in 2030 to 2.30 MMb/d by 2050, or 30% lower than in 2022.
  • GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector will fall to 32 megatonnes (MT) in 2050, or nearly 85% lower than 2021 levels.
  • By 2050, almost 80 MT of CO2 will be captured from fossil fuel electric generation, heavy industry, and oil and gas sectors using carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), as there are more emissions to be captured from the fuel used to produce oil and natural gas.

Important things for you to know:

  • The results in EF2023 are not predictions about the future nor are they policy recommendations. Rather, they are the product of scenarios based on a specific premise and set of assumptions.
  • Net economy-wide GHG emissions will fall to zero by 2050, which is a pre-determined outcome due to the nature of the analysis.
  • The CER produces timely, fact-based, and relevant energy analysis to inform the energy conversation in Canada.
  • This long-term Canadian energy supply and demand outlook covers all energy commodities and Canadian provinces and territories and makes projections to 2050 using economic and energy models.
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