ARCHIVED – Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2016-2018 – Appendices – Table B2 – Detailed Gas-Intent Drilling and Gas Connection Projections by Case

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Table B2 – Detailed Gas-Intent Drilling and Gas Connection Projections by Case

Mid-Range Price Case

Mid-Range Price Case
Resource Grouping Projected Annual Number of Wells Targeted to Resource Grouping Connection Ratio Projected Annual Number of Connections for Resource Grouping
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Gas Connections              
    00 – Alberta CBM 71 77 82 1.279 91 99 104
    01 – Southern Alberta 17 18 19 1.219 20 22 23
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    02 – Southwest Alberta 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    03 – Southern Foothills 1 1 1 1.186 1 1 1
    04 – Eastern Alberta 8 9 10 1.059 9 10 10
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    05 – Central Alberta 14 15 16 1.229 18 19 20
    Tight Portion 1 1 1 1.346 1 2 2
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    06 – West Central Alberta 93 102 109 1.105 103 113 121
    Tight Portion 55 60 65 1.127 62 68 73
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 9 10 11 1.000 9 10 11
    07 – Central Foothills 8 9 9 1.344 11 12 13
    Montney
Tight Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Other
Tight Portion		 0 1 1 1.325 1 1 1
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    08 – Kaybob 34 37 39 1.004 34 37 39
    Montney
Tight Portion		 9 10 10 1.000 9 10 10
    Other
Tight Portion		 4 5 5 1.050 4 5 5
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 19 21 22 1.000 19 21 22
    09 – Alberta Deep Basin 352 383 406 1.205 424 462 492
    Montney
Tight Portion		 130 139 145 1.000 130 139 145
    Other
Tight Portion		 177 195 210 1.380 245 270 290
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 2 2 2 1.000 2 2 2
    10 – Northeast Alberta 3 4 4 0.930 3 3 4
    11 – Peace River 40 42 44 1.000 40 42 44
    Montney
Tight Portion		 38 41 43 1.000 38 41 43
    Other
Tight Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    12 – Northwest Alberta 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    13 – BC Deep Basin 15 16 17 1.003 15 16 17
    Montney
Tight Portion		 13 14 15 1.000 13 14 15
    Other
Tight Portion		 2 2 2 1.017 2 2 2
    14 – Fort St. John 155 166 173 1.000 155 166 173
    Montney
Tight Portion		 152 163 170 1.000 152 163 170
    15 – Northeast BC 5 6 6 0.977 5 6 6
    Tight Portion 4 4 5 0.970 4 4 5
    Cordova
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Horn River
Shale Portion		 1 1 1 1.000 1 1 1
    16 – BC Foothills 27 29 31 1.000 27 29 31
    Montney
Tight Portion		 26 28 29 1.000 26 28 29
    17 – Southwest Saskatchewan 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    18 – West Saskatchewan 4 5 5 1.014 4 5 5
    19 – East Saskatchewan 0 0 0   0 0 0
  Subtotal: Gas – Conventional (non-tight) 133 144 153 1.130 150 163 173
  Subtotal: Gas – Tight 613 663 700 1.123 688 746 789
  Montney portion
of Tight		 369 395 411 1.000 369 395 411
  Subtotal: Gas – CBM 71 77 82 1.279 91 99 104
  Subtotal: Gas – Shale 31 34 37 1.000 31 34 37
Gas Connections – CBM Breakdown              
    AB – Main HSC 68 79 94 1.279 88 101 120
    AB – Mannville CBM 0 0 0   0 0 0
    AB – Other CBM 0 0 0   0 0 0
  Subtotal: Gas – CBM 68 79 94 1.279 88 101 120
Total: All Gas 848 919 971 1.132 961 1 041 1 103

Higher Price Case

Higher Price Case
Resource Grouping Projected Annual Number of Wells Targeted to Resource Grouping Connection Ratio Projected Annual Number of Connections for Resource Grouping
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Gas Connections              
    00 – Alberta CBM 79 94 106 1.279 101 120 135
    01 – Southern Alberta 19 22 25 1.219 23 27 30
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    02 – Southwest Alberta 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    03 – Southern Foothills 1 1 1   1 1 1
    04 – Eastern Alberta 9 11 12 1.059 10 12 13
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    05 – Central Alberta 16 19 21 1.229 19 23 26
    Tight Portion 1 1 2 1.346 2 2 2
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    06 – West Central Alberta 103 124 141 1.105 114 137 156
    Tight Portion 61 73 84 1.127 69 83 95
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 10 12 14 1.000 10 12 14
    07 – Central Foothills 9 11 12 1.344 12 14 16
    Montney
Tight Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Other
Tight Portion		 1 1 1 1.325 1 1 1
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    08 – Kaybob 37 45 51 1.004 38 45 51
    Montney
Tight Portion		 10 12 13 1.000 10 12 13
    Other
Tight Portion		 5 5 6 1.050 5 6 7
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 21 25 29 1.000 21 25 29
    09 – Alberta Deep Basin 391 465 526 1.205 472 561 637
    Montney
Tight Portion		 144 168 187 1.000 144 168 187
    Other
Tight Portion		 197 237 272 1.380 272 327 375
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 2 2 3 1.000 2 2 3
    10 – Northeast Alberta 4 4 5 0.930 4 4 5
    11 – Peace River 44 51 57 1.000 44 51 57
    Montney
Tight Portion		 43 50 55 1.000 43 50 55
    Other
Tight Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    12 – Northwest Alberta 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    13 – BC Deep Basin 17 20 22 1.003 17 20 22
    Montney
Tight Portion		 15 17 19 1.000 15 17 19
    Other
Tight Portion		 2 3 3 1.017 2 3 3
    14 – Fort St. John 172 201 224 1.000 172 201 224
    Montney
Tight Portion		 169 198 220 1.000 169 198 220
    15 – Northeast BC 6 7 8 0.977 6 7 8
    Tight Portion 4 5 6 0.970 4 5 6
    Cordova
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Horn River
Shale Portion		 1 2 2 1.000 1 2 2
    16 – BC Foothills 30 36 39 1.000 30 36 40
    Montney
Tight Portion		 29 34 38 1.000 29 34 38
    17 – Southwest Saskatchewan 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    18 – West Saskatchewan 5 6 6 1.014 5 6 6
    19 – East Saskatchewan 0 0 0   0 0 0
  Subtotal: Gas – Conventional (non-tight) 148 175 198 1.130 167 198 224
  Subtotal: Gas – Tight 681 805 906 1.123 765 905 1 021
  Montney portion
of Tight		 410 479 532 1.000 410 479 532
  Subtotal: Gas – CBM 79 94 106 1.279 101 120 135
  Subtotal: Gas – Shale 35 41 47 1.000 35 41 47
Gas Connections – CBM Breakdown              
    AB – Main HSC 68 79 94 1.279 88 101 120
    AB – Mannville CBM 0 0 0   0 0 0
    AB – Other CBM 0 0 0   0 0 0
  Subtotal: Gas – CBM 68 79 94 1.279 88 101 120
Total: All Gas 943 1 115 1 257 1.132 1 068 1 264 1 427

Lower Price Case

Lower Price Case
Resource Grouping Projected Annual Number of Wells Targeted to Resource Grouping Connection Ratio Projected Annual Number of Connections for Resource Grouping
2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018
Gas Connections              
    00 – Alberta CBM 68 58 63 1.279 88 75 81
    01 – Southern Alberta 16 14 15 1.219 20 17 18
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    02 – Southwest Alberta 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    03 – Southern Foothills 1 1 1   1 1 1
    04 – Eastern Alberta 8 7 7 1.059 8 7 8
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    05 – Central Alberta 14 12 13 1.229 17 14 16
    Tight Portion 1 1 1 1.346 1 1 1
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    06 – West Central Alberta 88 76 83 1.105 98 84 92
    Tight Portion 52 45 49 1.127 58 51 56
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 9 8 8 1.000 9 8 8
    07 – Central Foothills 8 7 7 1.345 11 9 10
    Montney
Tight Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Other
Tight Portion		 0 0 0 1.325 1 1 1
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    08 – Kaybob 32 28 30 1.004 32 28 30
    Montney
Tight Portion		 9 7 8 1.000 9 7 8
    Other
Tight Portion		 4 3 4 1.050 4 4 4
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 18 15 17 1.000 18 15 17
    09 – Alberta Deep Basin 337 289 314 1.204 405 348 379
    Montney
Tight Portion		 126 106 114 1.000 126 106 114
    Other
Tight Portion		 168 145 160 1.380 232 201 221
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 2 1 2 1.000 2 1 2
    10 – Northeast Alberta 3 3 3 0.930 3 3 3
    11 – Peace River 38 32 35 1.000 38 32 35
    Montney
Tight Portion		 37 32 34 1.000 37 32 34
    Other
Tight Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    12 – Northwest Alberta 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Duvernay
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    13 – BC Deep Basin 15 12 13 1.003 15 12 13
    Montney
Tight Portion		 13 11 11 1.000 13 11 11
    Other
Tight Portion		 2 2 2 1.017 2 2 2
    14 – Fort St. John 150 127 136 1.000 150 127 136
    Montney
Tight Portion		 148 125 134 1.000 148 125 134
    15 – Northeast BC 5 4 5 0.978 5 4 5
    Tight Portion 4 3 4 0.970 4 3 3
    Cordova
Shale Portion		 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Horn River
Shale Portion		 1 1 1 1.000 1 1 1
    16 – BC Foothills 26 22 24 1.001 26 22 24
    Montney
Tight Portion		 25 22 23 1.000 25 22 23
    17 – Southwest Saskatchewan 0 0 0   0 0 0
    Tight Portion 0 0 0   0 0 0
    18 – West Saskatchewan 4 3 4 1.014 4 4 4
    19 – East Saskatchewan 0 0 0   0 0 0
  Subtotal: Gas – Conventional (non-tight) 127 109 118 1.130 144 123 134
  Subtotal: Gas – Tight 588 503 543 1.121 659 564 611
  Montney portion
of Tight		 357 303 323 1.000 357 303 323
  Subtotal: Gas – CBM 68 58 63 1.279 88 75 81
  Subtotal: Gas – Shale 30 25 28 1.000 30 25 28
Gas Connections – CBM Breakdown              
    AB – Main HSC 68 58 63 1.279 88 75 81
    AB – Mannville CBM 0 0 0   0 0 0
    AB – Other CBM 0 0 0   0 0 0
  Subtotal: Gas – CBM 68 58 63 1.279 88 75 81
Total: All Gas 814 696 753 1.131 920 788 853

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