The CER has issued an errata to correct several errors in the report


Canada’s Energy Future 2021: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050 (EF2021) is the latest long-term energy outlook from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). The Canada’s Energy Future series explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. We use economic and energy models to make these projections. The CER bases our projections on assumptions about future trends in technology, energy and climate policies, energy markets, human behaviour, and the structure of the economy.

EF2021 includes two core scenarios: The Evolving Policies Scenario and the Current Policies Scenario. The central difference between these scenarios is the level of future climate action, both globally and domestically. In both scenarios we provide projections for all energy commodities and all provinces and territories.

EF2021 also includes six additional electricity scenarios that explore what Canada’s electricity system might look like in a net-zeroFootnote 1 world. These scenarios focus only on how Canada will meet given electricity demands under different conditions, and do not include projections for other energy commodities. Electricity is an important contributor to achieving net-zero emissions, so these projections are an important step in modeling related to a net-zero energy system in the Canada’s Energy Future series.

The analysis and projections for EF2021 are based on several important assumptions, outlined for the core scenarios in the “Scenarios and Assumptions” section of the report. The “Results” section provides an overview of our core scenario projections for various parts of the Canadian energy system to 2050, focusing on the Evolving Policies Scenario. The “Towards Net-Zero” section explores what Canada’s electricity system could look in a net-zero world, including assumptions and projections. Finally, the “Access and Explore Energy Futures Data” section provides links to access data, tools, and interactive data visualizations that offer further insight into EF2021.

Current Policies Scenario: A new name for the Reference Scenario

In EF2021, we have renamed one of the core scenarios of the Canada’s Energy Future series. The “Current Policies Scenario” shares the same premise as the “Reference Case” or “Reference Energy System Scenario” in past versions of the report. We changed the name to “Current Policies” to increase clarity and be more explicit about the assumptions of the scenario: that it models only energy and climate policies that are currently in place. This change also clarifies that the scenario is not meant to be a most-likely or base-case scenario. EF scenarios provide alternative views on how the energy system could evolve in Canada given different inputs and assumptions.

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