Market Snapshot: Canadian natural gas production, and British Columbia’s share of it, is expected to continue growing

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Release date: 2019-08-14

Canadian marketable natural gas production is projected to steadily increase until 2040 according to the Reference Case in a recent report from the National Energy Board. British Columbia’s (B.C.) share of this production is also expected to continue growing. Liquefied natural gas exports from Canada’s west coast are assumed to begin in 2025, which triggers additional drilling and production to supply it.



Figure 1: Canadian projected natural gas production through 2040

Source and Description

Source: NEB

Description: The stacked area chart shows projected natural gas production by province until 2040 in the Reference, Low Price, High Price, and Technology Cases.

In 2010, Canadian natural gas production was just under 14.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), with 10.9 from Alberta, 2.9 from B.C., 0.5 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. In 2018, Canadian natural gas production was 16.0 Bcf/d, with 10.4 from Alberta, 5.1 from B.C., 0.4 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. The following numbers are some of the projections in each case:

  • Reference Case: In 2025, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 16.4 Bcf/d, with 9.9 from Alberta, 6.1 from B.C., 0.3 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. In 2040, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 20.9 Bcf/d, with 11.4 from Alberta, 9.2 from B.C., 0.3 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.
  • Low Price Case: In 2025, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 13.7 Bcf/d, with 8.2 from Alberta, 5.2 from B.C., 0.3 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. In 2040, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 12.6 Bcf/d, with 5.9 from Alberta, 6.5 from B.C., 0.2 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.
  • High Price Case: In 2025, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 17.7 Bcf/d, with 10.9 from Alberta, 6.5 from B.C., 0.4 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. In 2040, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 26.7 Bcf/d, with 15.2 from Alberta, 11.1 from B.C., 0.4 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.
  • Technology Case: In 2025, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 15.7 Bcf/d, with 9.5 from Alberta, 5.9 from B.C., 0.3 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces. In 2040, Canadian natural gas production is projected to be 14.1 Bcf/d, with 7.1 from Alberta, 6.9 from B.C., 0.2 from Saskatchewan, and the rest from other provinces.

Although B.C.’s share of production increases throughout the projection as production from the Montney Formation grows, Alberta remains the largest natural gas producer. Saskatchewan gas production, which is mostly solution gas, declines slightly then gradually increases over the projection period.

Explore the remaining price cases in the interactive chart above and in the report Canada’s Energy Future 2018 Supplement: Natural Gas Production. Detailed data is also available for the report figures and appendices [EXCEL 13170 KB].

 

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