Market Snapshot: Canadian Oil Exports Reached 3.11 million b/d in January 2015

Release Date: 2015-04-28

Canada’s total crude oil exports were at an all time high of 3.11 million b/d (492.9 Thousand m³/d) in January 2015, 12.8 percent higher than January 2014, and 80 percent higher than January 2010. See the figure below.

 

 

 

Figure Source and Description

Source: The NEB’s Commodity Tracking System. Note: The five U.S. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) are: PADD I (U.S. East Coast), PADD II (Midwest), PADD III (U.S. Gulf Coast), PADD IV (Rocky Mountains), and PADD V (U.S. West Coast, Alaska and Hawaii).

Description: This stacked cake chart shows monthly Canadian crude oil exports by destination. Exports to PADD III increased steadily over 2014, and in January 2015 were at 365 thousand barrels per day, three times the 2010-2013 average of 120 thousand barrels per day. Exports to PADD II have increased from 1.1 million barrels per day in January 2010 to 2.0 million barrels per day in January 2015. Exports to PADDs I, IV, and V all increased moderately in 2014, and in January 2015 were 70 thousand barrels per day, 50 thousand barrels per day, and 40 thousand barrels per day more than the 2010-2013 averages, respectively. Exports to Non-U.S. destinations are less consistent, some months with none at all.

Although the U.S. Midwest (PADD II) has been the main destination for growing Canadian oil exports, volumes exported to the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD III) have increased significantly in 2014, in part due to the commissioning of several pipeline projects such as TransCanada’s U.S. Gulf Coast Extension and Enbridge’s Flanagan South and Seaway Twin. The U.S. Gulf Coast is one of the largest and most complex refining centers in the world. It holds significant long-term potential as a market for western Canadian crude oil, particularly heavy grades.

Conventional oil production has seen moderate growth in recent years, but is expected to decline in 2015 due to lower oil prices. That coupled with increased demand for domestic crude in Canadian refineries since 2011 indicates that oil sands production is driving crude oil export increases.

Over the course of 2015, oil sands production is forecast to increase significantly, as several major projects ramp up production, including Husky Sunrise, Cenovus Christina Lake and Foster Creek, Devon Jackfish 3, and CNRL’s Horizon Mine and Kirby South projects.

 

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