ARCHIVED – Short-term Canadian Natural Gas Deliverability 2016-2018 – Appendices – Table B1 – Factors for Allocation of Gas-Intent Drill Days to Resource Groupings
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Historical Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area
Year | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 25 749 | 12 406 | 3 332 | 399 | 6 812 | 8 503 | 10 808 | 4 602 | 2 991 | 27 082 | 1 565 | 4 052 | 2 409 | 6 443 | 5 871 | 5 795 | 0 | 2 218 | 11 910 | 1 691 | 0 |
2006 | 11 286 | 10 938 | 1 871 | 391 | 7 573 | 4 479 | 9 356 | 6 161 | 3 141 | 27 174 | 1 814 | 4 315 | 1 769 | 6 232 | 5 661 | 4 661 | 140 | 2 449 | 11 766 | 996 | 0 |
2007 | 10 930 | 8 637 | 1 528 | 451 | 3 924 | 2 826 | 5 683 | 3 862 | 2 696 | 16 135 | 1 234 | 2 201 | 587 | 3 219 | 4 007 | 2 260 | 228 | 2 493 | 6 347 | 496 | 0 |
2008 | 7 541 | 6 390 | 1 218 | 78 | 1 486 | 2 652 | 5 828 | 3 839 | 2 705 | 15 389 | 702 | 2 783 | 486 | 4 200 | 5 769 | 1 858 | 1 162 | 2 912 | 6 573 | 1 719 | 0 |
2009 | 4 866 | 2 537 | 335 | 21 | 441 | 741 | 3 193 | 2 007 | 2 348 | 10 365 | 280 | 1 669 | 179 | 3 016 | 4 220 | 610 | 5 001 | 1 427 | 848 | 148 | 0 |
2010 | 8 358 | 5 603 | 1 001 | 118 | 626 | 1 059 | 3 399 | 1 282 | 2 306 | 14 385 | 87 | 2 303 | 78 | 4 373 | 5 441 | 818 | 3 563 | 3 205 | 179 | 15 | 0 |
2011 | 2 733 | 1 061 | 295 | 57 | 350 | 388 | 3 498 | 978 | 1 813 | 13 122 | 79 | 1 711 | 45 | 2 704 | 5 911 | 594 | 5 568 | 2 825 | 119 | 35 | 0 |
2012 | 320 | 174 | 36 | 0 | 321 | 192 | 2 181 | 582 | 2 133 | 11 058 | 33 | 1 323 | 27 | 1 090 | 6 460 | 60 | 2 890 | 2 151 | 20 | 37 | 0 |
2013 | 271 | 390 | 7 | 0 | 83 | 185 | 2 948 | 485 | 3 761 | 11 849 | 13 | 1 279 | 0 | 2 100 | 6 553 | 56 | 2 032 | 3 678 | 0 | 36 | 0 |
2014 | 687 | 275 | 4 | 49 | 113 | 75 | 4 750 | 335 | 2 515 | 15 347 | 24 | 1 528 | 10 | 1 596 | 7 986 | 192 | 500 | 4 028 | 0 | 73 | 11 |
Historical Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 0.1780 | 0.0858 | 0.0230 | 0.0028 | 0.0471 | 0.0588 | 0.0747 | 0.0318 | 0.0207 | 0.1872 | 0.0108 | 0.0280 | 0.0167 | 0.0445 | 0.0406 | 0.0401 | 0.0000 | 0.0153 | 0.0823 | 0.0117 | 0.0000 |
2006 | 0.0924 | 0.0895 | 0.0153 | 0.0032 | 0.0620 | 0.0367 | 0.0766 | 0.0504 | 0.0257 | 0.2224 | 0.0148 | 0.0353 | 0.0145 | 0.0510 | 0.0463 | 0.0382 | 0.0011 | 0.0200 | 0.0963 | 0.0082 | 0.0000 |
2007 | 0.1371 | 0.1083 | 0.0192 | 0.0057 | 0.0492 | 0.0354 | 0.0713 | 0.0484 | 0.0338 | 0.2023 | 0.0155 | 0.0276 | 0.0074 | 0.0404 | 0.0502 | 0.0283 | 0.0029 | 0.0313 | 0.0796 | 0.0062 | 0.0000 |
2008 | 0.1002 | 0.0849 | 0.0162 | 0.0010 | 0.0197 | 0.0352 | 0.0774 | 0.0510 | 0.0359 | 0.2044 | 0.0093 | 0.0370 | 0.0065 | 0.0558 | 0.0766 | 0.0247 | 0.0154 | 0.0387 | 0.0873 | 0.0228 | 0.0000 |
2009 | 0.1100 | 0.0573 | 0.0076 | 0.0005 | 0.0100 | 0.0167 | 0.0722 | 0.0454 | 0.0531 | 0.2342 | 0.0063 | 0.0377 | 0.0040 | 0.0682 | 0.0954 | 0.0138 | 0.1130 | 0.0322 | 0.0192 | 0.0033 | 0.0000 |
2010 | 0.1436 | 0.0963 | 0.0172 | 0.0020 | 0.0108 | 0.0182 | 0.0584 | 0.0220 | 0.0396 | 0.2472 | 0.0015 | 0.0396 | 0.0013 | 0.0751 | 0.0935 | 0.0141 | 0.0612 | 0.0551 | 0.0031 | 0.0003 | 0.0000 |
2011 | 0.0623 | 0.0242 | 0.0067 | 0.0013 | 0.0080 | 0.0088 | 0.0797 | 0.0223 | 0.0413 | 0.2990 | 0.0018 | 0.0390 | 0.0010 | 0.0616 | 0.1347 | 0.0135 | 0.1269 | 0.0644 | 0.0027 | 0.0008 | 0.0000 |
2012 | 0.0103 | 0.0056 | 0.0012 | 0.0000 | 0.0103 | 0.0062 | 0.0702 | 0.0187 | 0.0686 | 0.3557 | 0.0011 | 0.0426 | 0.0009 | 0.0351 | 0.2078 | 0.0019 | 0.0930 | 0.0692 | 0.0006 | 0.0012 | 0.0000 |
2013 | 0.0076 | 0.0109 | 0.0002 | 0.0000 | 0.0023 | 0.0052 | 0.0825 | 0.0136 | 0.1053 | 0.3317 | 0.0004 | 0.0358 | 0.0000 | 0.0588 | 0.1834 | 0.0016 | 0.0569 | 0.1030 | 0.0000 | 0.0010 | 0.0000 |
2014 | 0.0171 | 0.0069 | 0.0001 | 0.0012 | 0.0028 | 0.0019 | 0.1185 | 0.0084 | 0.0627 | 0.3827 | 0.0006 | 0.0381 | 0.0002 | 0.0398 | 0.1992 | 0.0048 | 0.0125 | 0.1005 | 0.0000 | 0.0018 | 0.0003 |
Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Mid-Range Price Case
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 315 | 35 | 0 | 25 | 35 | 104 | 1 792 | 192 | 1 189 | 8 148 | 6 | 848 | 0 | 910 | 5 600 | 85 | 0 | 1 094 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
2016 | 343 | 38 | 0 | 27 | 38 | 114 | 1 969 | 210 | 1 302 | 8 881 | 7 | 917 | 0 | 985 | 6 056 | 94 | 0 | 1 183 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
2017 | 376 | 42 | 0 | 30 | 42 | 126 | 2 181 | 230 | 1 437 | 9 716 | 7 | 992 | 0 | 1 066 | 6 552 | 104 | 0 | 1 280 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
2018 | 415 | 46 | 0 | 33 | 46 | 140 | 2 435 | 254 | 1 604 | 10 685 | 8 | 1 078 | 0 | 1 160 | 7 118 | 117 | 0 | 1 391 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Mid-Range Price Case
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 0.0154 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0051 | 0.0879 | 0.0094 | 0.0583 | 0.3996 | 0.0003 | 0.0416 | 0.0000 | 0.0446 | 0.2746 | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0536 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2016 | 0.0155 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0051 | 0.0888 | 0.0095 | 0.0587 | 0.4004 | 0.0003 | 0.0413 | 0.0000 | 0.0444 | 0.2731 | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0534 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2017 | 0.0155 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0052 | 0.0901 | 0.0095 | 0.0594 | 0.4015 | 0.0003 | 0.0410 | 0.0000 | 0.0441 | 0.2708 | 0.0043 | 0.0000 | 0.0529 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2018 | 0.0156 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0053 | 0.0917 | 0.0096 | 0.0604 | 0.4025 | 0.0003 | 0.0406 | 0.0000 | 0.0437 | 0.2681 | 0.0044 | 0.0000 | 0.0524 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Higher Price Case
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 315 | 35 | 0 | 25 | 35 | 104 | 1 792 | 192 | 1 189 | 8 148 | 6 | 848 | 0 | 910 | 5 600 | 85 | 0 | 1 094 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
2016 | 377 | 42 | 0 | 30 | 42 | 125 | 2 159 | 230 | 1 427 | 9 739 | 7 | 1 006 | 0 | 1 080 | 6 642 | 103 | 0 | 1 298 | 0 | 17 | 0 |
2017 | 478 | 53 | 0 | 38 | 53 | 160 | 2 773 | 293 | 1 827 | 12 353 | 9 | 1 261 | 0 | 1 356 | 8 330 | 133 | 0 | 1 628 | 0 | 21 | 0 |
2018 | 564 | 63 | 0 | 45 | 63 | 190 | 3 311 | 346 | 2 181 | 14 531 | 11 | 1 465 | 0 | 1 577 | 9 679 | 159 | 0 | 1 892 | 0 | 25 | 0 |
Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Higher Price Case
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 0.0154 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0051 | 0.0879 | 0.0094 | 0.0583 | 0.3996 | 0.0003 | 0.0416 | 0.0000 | 0.0446 | 0.2746 | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0536 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2016 | 0.0155 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0051 | 0.0888 | 0.0095 | 0.0587 | 0.4004 | 0.0003 | 0.0413 | 0.0000 | 0.0444 | 0.2731 | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0534 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2017 | 0.0155 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0052 | 0.0901 | 0.0095 | 0.0594 | 0.4015 | 0.0003 | 0.0410 | 0.0000 | 0.0441 | 0.2708 | 0.0043 | 0.0000 | 0.0529 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2018 | 0.0156 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0053 | 0.0917 | 0.0096 | 0.0604 | 0.4025 | 0.0003 | 0.0406 | 0.0000 | 0.0437 | 0.2681 | 0.0044 | 0.0000 | 0.0524 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
Projected Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Lower Price Case
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC (excl Shale) | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 315 | 35 | 0 | 25 | 35 | 104 | 1 792 | 192 | 1 189 | 8 148 | 6 | 848 | 0 | 910 | 5 600 | 85 | 0 | 1 094 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
2016 | 320 | 36 | 0 | 25 | 36 | 106 | 1 833 | 195 | 1 212 | 8 270 | 6 | 854 | 0 | 917 | 5 639 | 87 | 0 | 1 102 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
2017 | 329 | 37 | 0 | 26 | 37 | 110 | 1 906 | 201 | 1 256 | 8 493 | 6 | 867 | 0 | 932 | 5 728 | 91 | 0 | 1 119 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
2018 | 332 | 37 | 0 | 26 | 37 | 112 | 1 950 | 204 | 1 284 | 8 558 | 6 | 863 | 0 | 929 | 5 701 | 94 | 0 | 1 114 | 0 | 15 | 0 |
Projected Fraction of Total Gas-Intent Drill Days by Area – Lower Price Case
DrlYr | 00 – Alberta CBM | 01 – South-ern Alberta | 02 – South-west Alberta | 03 – South-ern Foot-hills | 04 – Eastern Alberta | 05 – Central Alberta | 06 – West Central Alberta | 07 – Central Foot-hills | 08 – Kaybob | 09 – Alberta Deep Basin | 10 – North-east Alberta | 11 – Peace River | 12 – North-west Alberta | 13 – BC Deep Basin | 14 – Fort St. John | 15 – North-east BC | 15 – North-east BC (Shale) | 16 – BC Foot-hills | 17 – South-west Saskat-chewan | 18 – West Saskat-chewan | 19 – East Saskat-chewan |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2015 | 0.0154 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0051 | 0.0879 | 0.0094 | 0.0583 | 0.3996 | 0.0003 | 0.0416 | 0.0000 | 0.0446 | 0.2746 | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0536 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2016 | 0.0155 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0051 | 0.0888 | 0.0095 | 0.0587 | 0.4004 | 0.0003 | 0.0413 | 0.0000 | 0.0444 | 0.2731 | 0.0042 | 0.0000 | 0.0534 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2017 | 0.0155 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0052 | 0.0901 | 0.0095 | 0.0594 | 0.4015 | 0.0003 | 0.0410 | 0.0000 | 0.0441 | 0.2708 | 0.0043 | 0.0000 | 0.0529 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
2018 | 0.0156 | 0.0017 | 0.0000 | 0.0012 | 0.0017 | 0.0053 | 0.0917 | 0.0096 | 0.0604 | 0.4025 | 0.0003 | 0.0406 | 0.0000 | 0.0437 | 0.2681 | 0.0044 | 0.0000 | 0.0524 | 0.0000 | 0.0007 | 0.0000 |
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